A Treasury Rate Forecast can be an vital decision
making tool for investors.
SignalTrend has developed a Treasury Rate Forecast
system that has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in
a 49 year backtest. In minutes, you can start receiving
SignalTrend's Treasury Rate Forecast… either Up or
Down. No ambiguity, maybes, ifs or buts.
Join thousands of subscribers from 24
nations...
who receive SignalTrend's 10 Year Treasury Rate
Forecast, Investment Tips E-Newsletter,
Stock Market Forecast, and more!
In minutes, you can start receiving SignalTrend's clear
and specific twelve month forecast for the 10 Year
Treasury Rate…
making tool for investors.
SignalTrend has developed a Treasury Rate Forecast
system that has demonstrated remarkable accuracy in
a 49 year backtest. In minutes, you can start receiving
SignalTrend's Treasury Rate Forecast… either Up or
Down. No ambiguity, maybes, ifs or buts.
Join thousands of subscribers from 24
nations...
who receive SignalTrend's 10 Year Treasury Rate
Forecast, Investment Tips E-Newsletter,
Stock Market Forecast, and more!
In minutes, you can start receiving SignalTrend's clear
and specific twelve month forecast for the 10 Year
Treasury Rate…
SignalTrend's
| helping you... manage your investments |
10 Year Treasury Rate Forecast
Accurate Results
SignalTrend's Treasury Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous
analytical equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed
to produce a Treasury Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Prime Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few
minutes and review the tables below. The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year
period ending with 2006, was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively.
SignalTrend's Treasury Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous
analytical equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed
to produce a Treasury Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Prime Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few
minutes and review the tables below. The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year
period ending with 2006, was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively.
| 10 Year Treasury |
| 30 Yr Mortgage |
| 6 Month CD |
| Prime Rate |
| SignalTrend Inc. 2007 All Rights Reserved. Membership Privacy Policy Terms of Use / Disclaimer Contact Us |
| 7.6% 7.2% 4.1% 3.3% 3.5% 7.1% 5.2% 5.1% 6.1% 4.7% 6.3% 5.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1% 2.8% 4.8% |
| 8.3% 6.3% 4.0% 3.4% 4.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.3% 6.9% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.8% 3.6% 5.5% |
| 1.14% .58% |
| 9.9% 9.4% 6.8% 5.6% 5.6% 9.9% 8.1% 9.6% 9.9% 7.3% 9.9% 8.9% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% 6.0% 8.3% |
| 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 |
| 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% |
| 10.0% 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 8.5% 8.7% 8.3% 8.5% 7.8% 8.5% 9.5% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 5.2% 7.2% 8.3% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Year |
| Variance |
Avg. Variance 1990-2006
Avg. Variance 2002-2006
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 2.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% |
| 7.6% 7.8% 6.9% 6.6% 5.9% 7.6% 5.5% 6.4% 5.6% 4.5% 6.4% 5.1% 5.2% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% |
| 8.1% 7.1% 6.8% 5.8% 7.8% 5.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.7% 6.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% |
| 9.4% 9.3% 8.2% 7.9% 7.2% 9.3% 6.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.5% 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 6.3% |
| 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% |
| 9.7% 8.5% 8.2% 7.2% 9.2% 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 7.9% 7.4% 7.1% 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% 6.1% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor. None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
SignalTrend's products, services or information constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as
contained in the following link.
SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor. None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
SignalTrend's products, services or information constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as
contained in the following link.
For mortgage, treasury and prime rates the percentages in the forecast columns represent January forecasts for
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958, click here.
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958, click here.
| 2% |
| 12% |
| 10% |
| 8% |
| 2% |
| 6% |
| 12% |
| 4% |
| 10% |
| 20% |
| 8% |
| 18% |
| 6% |
| 16% |
| 4% |
| 14% |
| 20% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 18% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 16% |
| 14% |
| 22% |
Prime
10 Year Treasury
30 Year Mortgage
6 Month CD
| 0.66% 0.38% |
| 0.78% 0.40% |
| 0.69% 0.50% |
| 0.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% |
| Interest Rate Charts: 1965 - 2006 |
The 30 year mortgage graph was derived from FHA mortgages for the period 1/65-3/71 and from conventional mortgages from 4/71-12/06.
Source of interest rate data for the above charts and tables: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Source of interest rate data for the above charts and tables: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
10 Year Treasury Rate Forecast
Should you lock in todays rates for the long term or wait for rates
to fall?
If you buy 10 year treasuries now, will the rates be better next
year?
Interest bearing investments are often dramatically affected by
changing interest rates. Supposedly safe investments can
actually lose a lot of money. If treasury rates rise after you buy,
you could suffer heavy losses. The value of your bonds will fall
and your interest income will be locked in at the low interest
rates. If rates fall after you buy, you'll profit handsomely. The
value of your bonds will rise. And... you will have locked in the
higher rates for the life of the bonds. For a more detailed
explanation of the effect of future interest rates on the value of
your bonds, just click the How To Invest button above and read
the section titled Interest Bearing Investments.
Take a look at the following charts, showing key interest
rates since 1965. They have been generally falling for the last
quarter century. Twenty-five years is a long time for a trend to
continue. Will it? There are reasons to believe that we may be at
the end of that 25 year super downtrend.
Should you lock in todays rates for the long term or wait for rates
to fall?
If you buy 10 year treasuries now, will the rates be better next
year?
Interest bearing investments are often dramatically affected by
changing interest rates. Supposedly safe investments can
actually lose a lot of money. If treasury rates rise after you buy,
you could suffer heavy losses. The value of your bonds will fall
and your interest income will be locked in at the low interest
rates. If rates fall after you buy, you'll profit handsomely. The
value of your bonds will rise. And... you will have locked in the
higher rates for the life of the bonds. For a more detailed
explanation of the effect of future interest rates on the value of
your bonds, just click the How To Invest button above and read
the section titled Interest Bearing Investments.
Take a look at the following charts, showing key interest
rates since 1965. They have been generally falling for the last
quarter century. Twenty-five years is a long time for a trend to
continue. Will it? There are reasons to believe that we may be at
the end of that 25 year super downtrend.