| Stock Market Timing Performance |
| $423,349 |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| Dow Jones Industrial Average (5% Per Year) |
| $1 |
SignalTrend's return reflects Long and Short trades placed at the DJIA close, the
day after each signal, excluding any variables other than the Price of the index.
(Excludes taxes, dividends, commissions, margin costs etc.) The returns with
margin are calculated by multiplying the weekly returns without margin x 2.
day after each signal, excluding any variables other than the Price of the index.
(Excludes taxes, dividends, commissions, margin costs etc.) The returns with
margin are calculated by multiplying the weekly returns without margin x 2.
| SignalTrend's Stock Market Timing strategy was developed through years of research and thoroughly back-tested over one hundred years. The result nearly tripled the annual price gains of the Dow. The market timing performance using margin was nearly 5 times the Dow's annual return! The core of this indicator is a versatile model that identifies major turning points in the overall stock market. Hundreds of analytical equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional Buy and Sell signals. SignalTrend is designed to multiply your profits during both Bull and Bear markets as an alternative to Buy and Hold investing. Its indicators should be used to trade the DJIA, S&P 500 and NASDAQ indexes. This stock market timing system went live March 10, 2005 after being back-tested to 1900. SignalTrend was applied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1900 through 2004, a period in which the blue chip index rose an average of 5% per year. Market Timing Performance (1900-2004) |
17 Sideways Years
19 Sideways Years
SignalTrend performed well over an entire century… a century that
included the Great Depression, the Cyclic 70’s, the Crash of ‘87 and 9/11.
If you know of any other stock market timing model that tripled the return of
the market over 105 years, let us know. Until then...
Don’t invest without SignalTrend !
included the Great Depression, the Cyclic 70’s, the Crash of ‘87 and 9/11.
If you know of any other stock market timing model that tripled the return of
the market over 105 years, let us know. Until then...
Don’t invest without SignalTrend !
| $163 |
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
| 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 |
| 23% SignalTrend's Annual Return (With Margin) |
Compounded Annual Return
Average Gain on Winning Trades
Average Loss on Losing Trades
Maximum Loss on Losing Trades
Average Gain on Winning Trades
Average Loss on Losing Trades
Maximum Loss on Losing Trades
| 13% 47% 7% 16% |
Winning Trades
Losing Trades
Losing Trades
| 46 18 |
| 6 |
Signals per Decade
| 926 326 0 |
Months Bullish
Months Bearish
Months Neutral
Months Bearish
Months Neutral
Market Timing Performance
SignalTrend's
| Market Timing Performance |
 |
| 13% SignalTrend's Annual Return (Without Margin) |
| helping you... navigate the future |
Market Timing Performance
Could research covering an entire century improve your Market Timing Performance? Do you believe that methods that
have worked in the past should have a place in your future investment decisions? Do you apply expert recommendations
blindly or do you subject them to the actual market conditions of the past before investing real dollars in them? Then you
know that it takes a lot of time to subject theories to the tests of the past. Backtesting determines how strong Market
Timing Performance would have been for a strategy, had it been implemented over the test period. It is the only was to
estimate Market Timing Performance of a strategy before putting your investment dollars at risk. SignalTrend developed
Market Timing systems for stocks, bonds and even inflation. Our stock market timing indicators produce buy and sell
signals. Our inflation and interest rate market timing models produce twelve month forecasts to give you SignalTrend's
expectation on where those key rates will be twelve months from now. SignalTrend shows the Market Timing
Performance each of its systems: DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, prime rate, mortgage rate, treasury rate, CD rate and
inflation. All of these timing methods were backtested over decades if not a century.
Join investors from around the world...
who receive SignalTrend's
Stock Market Forecast, Interest Rate forecast,
Investment Tips E-Newsletter and more!
Could research covering an entire century improve your Market Timing Performance? Do you believe that methods that
have worked in the past should have a place in your future investment decisions? Do you apply expert recommendations
blindly or do you subject them to the actual market conditions of the past before investing real dollars in them? Then you
know that it takes a lot of time to subject theories to the tests of the past. Backtesting determines how strong Market
Timing Performance would have been for a strategy, had it been implemented over the test period. It is the only was to
estimate Market Timing Performance of a strategy before putting your investment dollars at risk. SignalTrend developed
Market Timing systems for stocks, bonds and even inflation. Our stock market timing indicators produce buy and sell
signals. Our inflation and interest rate market timing models produce twelve month forecasts to give you SignalTrend's
expectation on where those key rates will be twelve months from now. SignalTrend shows the Market Timing
Performance each of its systems: DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ, prime rate, mortgage rate, treasury rate, CD rate and
inflation. All of these timing methods were backtested over decades if not a century.
Join investors from around the world...
who receive SignalTrend's
Stock Market Forecast, Interest Rate forecast,
Investment Tips E-Newsletter and more!
|
Interest Rate Market Timing Performance
SignalTrend's Interest Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous analytical
equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed to produce
a Prime Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Treasury Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few minutes and review
the tables below. The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year period ending with 2006,
was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively. That's Market Timing
Performance that you can use!
SignalTrend's Interest Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous analytical
equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed to produce
a Prime Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Treasury Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few minutes and review
the tables below. The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year period ending with 2006,
was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively. That's Market Timing
Performance that you can use!
| 10 Yr Treasury |
| 30 Yr Mortgage |
| 6 Month CD |
| Prime Rate |
| SignalTrend Inc. 2007 All Rights Reserved. Membership Privacy Policy Terms of Use / Disclaimer Contact Us |
| 7.6% 7.2% 4.1% 3.3% 3.5% 7.1% 5.2% 5.1% 6.1% 4.7% 6.3% 5.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1% 2.8% 4.8% |
| 8.3% 6.3% 4.0% 3.4% 4.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.3% 6.9% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.8% 3.6% 5.5% |
| 1.14% .58% |
| 9.9% 9.4% 6.8% 5.6% 5.6% 9.9% 8.1% 9.6% 9.9% 7.3% 9.9% 8.9% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% 6.0% 8.3% |
| 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 |
| 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% |
| 10.0% 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 8.5% 8.7% 8.3% 8.5% 7.8% 8.5% 9.5% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 5.2% 7.2% 8.3% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Year |
| Variance |
Avg. Variance 1990-2006
Avg. Variance 2002-2006
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 2.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% |
| 7.6% 7.8% 6.9% 6.6% 5.9% 7.6% 5.5% 6.4% 5.6% 4.5% 6.4% 5.1% 5.2% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% |
| 8.1% 7.1% 6.8% 5.8% 7.8% 5.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.7% 6.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% |
| 9.4% 9.3% 8.2% 7.9% 7.2% 9.3% 6.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.5% 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 6.3% |
| 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% |
| 9.7% 8.5% 8.2% 7.2% 9.2% 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 7.9% 7.4% 7.1% 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% 6.1% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor. None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
SignalTrend's products, services or information constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as
contained in the following link.
SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor. None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
SignalTrend's products, services or information constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as
contained in the following link.
For mortgage, treasury and prime rates the percentages in the forecast columns represent January forecasts for
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958, click here.
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958, click here.
| 2% |
| 12% |
| 10% |
| 8% |
| 2% |
| 6% |
| 12% |
| 4% |
| 10% |
| 20% |
| 8% |
| 18% |
| 6% |
| 16% |
| 4% |
| 14% |
| 20% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 18% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 16% |
| 14% |
| 22% |
Prime
10 Year Treasury
30 Year Mortgage
6 Month CD
| 0.66% 0.38% |
| 0.78% 0.40% |
| 0.69% 0.50% |
| 0.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% |
| Interest Rate Charts: 1965 - 2006 |
The 30 year mortgage graph was derived from FHA mortgages for the period 1/65-3/71 and from conventional mortgages from 4/71-12/06.
Source of interest rate data for the above charts and tables: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Source of interest rate data for the above charts and tables: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.