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Summary:
April has been one of the strongest months for stocks since 1950. However, April has historically made all
it's gains during the first half of the month. Typically, the stock market has been weak during the first 4
days of April. Monthly highs tend to occur around April 18th. (Just a few days after the April 15th individual
federal income tax deadline). This daily price pattern seems to be unique to April. So the proximity to April
15th is a likely cause. After paying Uncle Sam, less money is available to invest into stocks.
How do I use this information?
If you are thinking about moving funds out of stocks, consider leaving the funds in the market during the
historically strong first half of April and then sell after April 15th.
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In the next issue of Investment Tips:
May through October is traditionally the weak half of the year. The 105, 55 and 5 year record will provide
realistic expectations for the coming 6 months.
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3/31/06
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Does April 15th Put a Lid on the Market?
Strategy Research: Summary, Analysis and Long Term Test Results
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SignalTrend
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Observations:
● All of April's gains have occurred in the first half of the month.
● April tends to make its high 3 days after April 15th.
S&P 500: Average Daily Return during April, 1950 - 2005
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