Accurate Results
SignalTrend's Interest Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous analytical
equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed to produce
a Prime Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Treasury Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few minutes and review
the tables below. The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year period ending with 2006,
was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively.
SignalTrend's Interest Rate Forecast System was developed through years of research and thoroughly backtested over many
decades. The Forecasts generated in the backtest of SignalTrend's computerized forecast system are provided in the tables
below. The heart of this system is a versatile model that identifies the probable course of future interest rates. Numerous analytical
equations were crafted to provide objective, unemotional forecasts for four key interest rates. Its signals are designed to produce
a Prime Rate Forecast, Mortgage Rate Forecast, Treasury Rate Forecast and CD Rate Forecast. Take a few minutes and review
the tables below. The average variance between actual and forecasted rates for the five year period ending with 2006,
was .38%, .40%, .58%, and .50% for Mortgage, Treasury, Prime and CD rates respectively.
| 10 Yr Treasury |
| 30 Yr Mortgage |
| 6 Month CD |
| Prime Rate |
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| 7.6% 7.2% 4.1% 3.3% 3.5% 7.1% 5.2% 5.1% 6.1% 4.7% 6.3% 5.9% 1.8% 1.3% 1.1% 2.8% 4.8% |
| 8.3% 6.3% 4.0% 3.4% 4.9% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 5.7% 5.3% 6.9% 3.7% 1.9% 1.0% 1.8% 3.6% 5.5% |
| 1.14% .58% |
| 9.9% 9.4% 6.8% 5.6% 5.6% 9.9% 8.1% 9.6% 9.9% 7.3% 9.9% 8.9% 4.5% 4.0% 3.8% 6.0% 8.3% |
| 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 |
| 0.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 1.4% 1.3% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.6% 0.6% 2.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 0.8% 0.7% |
| 10.0% 7.2% 6.0% 6.0% 8.5% 8.7% 8.3% 8.5% 7.8% 8.5% 9.5% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 5.2% 7.2% 8.3% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Year |
| Variance |
Avg. Variance 1990-2006
Avg. Variance 2002-2006
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| 0.3% 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 2.0% 2.1% 0.7% 0.6% 0.1% 1.5% 0.6% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% |
| 7.6% 7.8% 6.9% 6.6% 5.9% 7.6% 5.5% 6.4% 5.6% 4.5% 6.4% 5.1% 5.2% 3.9% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% |
| 8.1% 7.1% 6.8% 5.8% 7.8% 5.7% 6.3% 5.8% 4.7% 6.3% 5.2% 5.1% 4.0% 4.3% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% |
| 9.4% 9.3% 8.2% 7.9% 7.2% 9.3% 6.9% 7.7% 6.8% 6.5% 8.0% 7.1% 7.1% 5.8% 5.6% 5.8% 6.3% |
| 0.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.8% 1.9% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.8% 1.2% 0.0% 1.2% 0.4% 0.1% 0.2% 0.2% |
| 9.7% 8.5% 8.2% 7.2% 9.2% 7.2% 7.6% 7.1% 6.7% 7.9% 7.4% 7.1% 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 6.3% 6.1% |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
| Variance |
| Actual |
| Forecast |
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________
SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor. None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
SignalTrend's products, services or information constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as
contained in the following link.
SignalTrend is a newsletter service, not an investment advisor. None of the information on our Site is intended as investment advice, as an
offer or solicitation of an offer to buy or sell, or as a recommendation, endorsement, or sponsorship of any security, company, or fund.
SignalTrend does not recommend short selling, the use of margin or any other form of leverage. Please speak to your investment advisor to
determine the suitability of any investment for your objectives and risk tolerance before using any information, product or service found in this
website. Carefully read any fund's prospectus before investing. All four Interest Rate forecasts went live February 1, 2007. Results prior to
2/1/07 are the result of backtesting. Results after that date reflect real time forecasts. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Please read the following Terms of Use/Disclaimer before using any part of this website in any way. Your use of this site or any of
SignalTrend's products, services or information constitutes your agreement to abide by SignalTrend's Terms of Use/Disclaimer as
contained in the following link.
For mortgage, treasury and prime rates the percentages in the forecast columns represent January forecasts for
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958, click here.
December interest rates. Each month the twelve month forecasts are revised. So, in January the December
forecasts are published. In February, 2007, the January, 2008 forecasts are published etc.
For CD rates the percentages in the forecast column represents January forecasts for June interest rates. Each
month the six month forecasts are revised. In January the June forecasts are published. In February the July
forecasts are published etc. For system test results from 1958, click here.
| 2% |
| 12% |
| 10% |
| 8% |
| 2% |
| 6% |
| 12% |
| 4% |
| 10% |
| 20% |
| 8% |
| 18% |
| 6% |
| 16% |
| 4% |
| 14% |
| 20% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 18% |
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
| 16% |
| 14% |
| 22% |
Prime
10 Year Treasury
30 Year Mortgage
6 Month CD
| 0.66% 0.38% |
| 0.78% 0.40% |
| 0.69% 0.50% |
| 0.1% 2.2% 0.8% 0.4% 2.9% 1.2% 0.1% 1.1% 2.1% 1.2% 0.4% 4.1% 0.3% 0.0% 1.4% 1.2% 0.0% |
| Interest Rate Forecast Prime Rate Forecast ● Mortgage Rate Forecast ● Treasury Rate Forecast ● CD Rate Forecast |
| Interest Rate Charts: 1965 - 2006 |
The 30 year mortgage graph was derived from FHA mortgages for the period 1/65-3/71 and from conventional mortgages from 4/71-12/06.
Source of mortgage rate data for charts and tables: Freddie Mac. Source of other interest rate data for charts and tables: Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis.
Source of mortgage rate data for charts and tables: Freddie Mac. Source of other interest rate data for charts and tables: Federal Reserve
Bank of St. Louis.